First Friday, October 2026: AI, Trust, and What Makes Public Affairs Effective

[00:02] Neil Hughes: Hello and welcome to the October edition of First Friday here on Public Affairs Trends. I'm Neil Hughes, and as we enter the final quarter of 2026, there is a question running through our recent conversations. With more data, more technology, and more ways to reach people, What actually makes public affairs effective? Well, September's guests offered some compelling answers. Prepare for difficult decisions before a crisis arrives. Listen carefully to the people that you want to persuade. And measure whether your work actually changes anything. And today, I think we will revisit some of those conversations with Katie Harbath, Gerry Gunster, and Megan Bloomgren. And then we'll look at a leadership move over at Fulcrum, new research on AI adoption, and an experiment exploring whether text messages can strengthen voter turnout efforts. But let's begin today with Katie Harbath, CEO of AnkerChange. And she spent a decade at Facebook building and leading its global elections work. And Katie joined me to discuss technology, democracy, and her book Disrupting Politics, which comes out on October the 6th. And one of her strongest points from our conversation concerned preparation. Because when a crisis lands, leaders face competing priorities, incomplete information, and decisions that will ultimately upset somebody. So establishing your values and decision-making criteria beforehand Gives you something to work from when that pressure inevitably arrives. And I also wanted to reflect and discuss her phrase panic responsibly, because I think this captures the challenge that many organizations face with AI. Acknowledge the risks, but keep taking practical steps forward. And Katie also raised questions about how AI selects and personalizes information. And how transparency about its use could affect public trust. And for public affairs teams, I think my takeaway is to have those conversations early. Agree where AI can help, where judgment is essential, and how you will explain your choices. Because waiting until a controversy inevitably arrives makes every one of those decisions harder. And this question of trust is something that also ran through another conversation I had with Gerry Gunster, founder and CEO of Gunster Strategies Worldwide. And Gerry has spent decades working on issue advocacy and political campaigns, including the Leave campaign during the UK's EU referendum. And his message was also straightforward. Technology has transformed the tools available to campaigners, but understanding people still requires listening. And data can reveal patterns, yes, but it's human conversations that help explain why those patterns exist, what people care about, and which language feels relevant to their lives. And he also emphasized the importance of the messenger. Because a well-researched argument can struggle if it comes from someone that the audience just simply doesn't trust. So having credible community voices can make an enormous difference here. And there was also a useful warning for business leaders in our conversation last month. Agreement around the boardroom table doesn't guarantee agreement outside of it. And before committing to a campaign, Test the assumptions behind it. Listen to how people describe the issue in their own words. And this is a discipline that's worth protecting, especially when faster tools make it tempting to move straight from idea into execution. And finally, our conversation with Megan Blomgren, a partner at DCI Group, who connected these themes to coalition building and leadership. Because in our conversation, Megan emphasized the need to judge public affairs by its outcomes. Coverage impressions and activity can provide useful information, but organizations need to understand how that work contributes to their objectives. And her discussion of coalitions, I think, was particularly useful. Credibility comes from breadth, authenticity, and members that are willing to act. Different people may support the same outcome for different reasons, and it's these differences that can make a coalition stronger. And she also described why communications, government affairs, legal, and senior leadership— how they all need to work from a shared strategy, particularly when working under pressure. And while Megan sees considerable potential in AI for analyzing data and understanding audiences more quickly, She really did emphasize how judgment remains central. And I think if we take all these conversations that we had, they leave us with a practical challenge: use the time that technology saves to understand people, strengthen relationships, and make more informed decisions. And turning to the news this week, Fulcrum has promoted Zach Laven to principal in its Washington, D.C. office. And Lavin joined the firm in November 2022 after serving as Deputy Chief of Staff to Arizona Congressman David Schweikert. And before his congressional work, he worked on trade issues at Dow Chemical Company. And in announcing his promotion, Fulcrum highlighted his policy expertise, strategic insight, and results for clients. And the firm's work spans federal, state, and local advocacy. Alongside coalition building and management. So big congratulations to Zac on that new role, and his background is also a reminder of the range of experience that public affairs is drawing upon now. Understanding the policy process, the pressures facing businesses, and the practical work of advocacy all remains valuable as the profession's tools continue to evolve. And our next story puts some numbers behind the, that pace of technological change. New benchmarking research from the Public Affairs Council found that 99% of organisations represented in the survey are using AI right now. Maybe unsurprising, but it is still a striking adoption figure. But the details reveal just how much work remains. 40% of respondents described their organization's approach as tactical and focused mainly on efficiency, while just 7% said AI was embedded in strategic decision-making. And 73% reported an organization-wide AI policy, up from 33% in 2024, but only 12% had formal metrics to measure AI's impact. So the question for leaders is becoming much more specific now. What is AI improving and how do we know? Yes, saving time matters, of course it does, but so does understanding whether faster research, drafting, or analysis can produce more accurate work and better decisions. So my suggestion is to choose a defined use case. Establish what success looks like, and then evaluate the results. And this gives teams a much clearer basis for deciding what deserves further investment. And finally, a voter turnout experiment offers a far useful example of testing a familiar tactic. The Centre for Campaign Innovation studied whether adding text messages around a door-to-door canvas, for example, actually improved turnout among conservative voters in Virginia's 2025 Goober National Election. And everyone has received a canvas attempt at some point. Groups often receive a text before, after, both before and after, or no additional text. But across the combined results, turnout was 50% in the canvas-only group and 51% among those that were sent a text afterwards. And that was pretty much the strongest overall result, but the researchers cautioned that the differences weren't strong enough for firm statistical conclusions. And that study also found promising gains amongst women, which need confirmation in a larger test, and sending 2 texts didn't outperform the simpler approaches. So what does all this mean? Well, for me, I think the broader lesson here is about measurement. More contact doesn't automatically produce more impact. Timing, audience, and follow-through all deserve careful testing, and a promising result should inform the next experiment, and with enough discipline to discover whether it really holds up. And as October gets underway, I'm going to leave you with 3 questions for you to take away for your next team meeting. Which assumptions about your audience have you actually tested? Are your tools helping you to make better decisions? And finally, can you connect the activity that you're measuring to the outcome that you want? I think those 3 questions connect this month's conversations from AI and crisis preparation to persuasion, coalitions, and campaign research. And remember, you will find all 3 interviews and the stories we've discussed today over at publicaffairestrends.com, and you can also subscribe to the newsletter for new episodes, news, and analysis. I'm Neil Hughes. Thank you for joining me for First Friday, and I'll see you next time on Public Affairs Trends.